Three weeks before the Fed’s next meeting, investors who have missed the AI/tech rally have thrown caution to the wind. That urgency to catch up has led to an encouraging improvement in the market’s breadth and a marginal new high in the S&P 500 index (SPX). The combination is likely setting the market up for...
By the time this article hits the presses, there may be a fully developing civil war in Russia. Two weeks ago in this space, I noted that the AI-fueled rally was due for a pullback. And the Fed and a cadre of central banks gave sellers the excuse to take profits. And just to make...
The Federal Reserve is still talking tough via its dot-plot, which forecasts two more interest rate increases before the end of 2023. But the markets are not agreeing. My money, for now, is with the markets. As I pointed out in my January 2023 video for StockCharts TV’s Your Daily Five, despite constant worries from perplexed traders...
First things first. Last week, the headlines blared the S&P 500 (SPX) is in a bull market after a 20% gain from the October 2022 bottom. That’s nice, but the real winner has been the tech sector, as measured by the Nasdaq 100 index (NDX), which is up some 38% over the same period. In fact,...
The week of June 5 should be momentous, as the bears who have been left behind consider whether to fully capitulate. The stock market is back in rally mode as seasonal tendencies for a summer rally, especially in the third year of the presidential cycle, assert their influence. Especially comforting is the recovery in the...
There’s an old adage of Wall Street, which says: “never short a dull market.” And while AI is getting all the press these days, the oil market is about as dull as it gets. This, of course, brings the energy sector to the top of my contrarian alert list. This is not to say that...
Here is a bullish thought. The Federal Reserve seems to have lost its consensus about higher interest rates. Consider the following: On the day the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) broke out to a new high, 5/18/23, the Federal Reserve’s recently anointed Dallas Fed president, Lorie Logan, noted the Fed had “made progress” against inflation. However, she...
Interest rate-sensitive and big tech stocks are seeing positive money flows. but the market’s breadth is suddenly crashing as bond yields test their recent lows. You know trading is dull when stock traders talk about the bond market. But that’s where the action is these days, other than the Nasdaq 100, which no one pays much...
Welcome to the Tom and Jerry Markets Anyone who’s watched Tom and Jerry cartoons knows that a friendly game of cat and mouse can be quite amusing. In real life, however, cat-and-mouse games can have serious consequences. Currently, the markets and the Fed are playing a dangerous version of this game. Overall, I remain selectively bullish,...
As the mainstream focuses on negative developments, such as the Fed’s latest utterings and the implosion of subsets of the commercial real estate (CRE) sector, there seems to be a stealthy migration of money into other select areas of the market. This is a great example of why focusing on the markets instead of the external...