The week of June 5 should be momentous, as the bears who have been left behind consider whether to fully capitulate. The stock market is back in rally mode as seasonal tendencies for a summer rally, especially in the third year of the presidential cycle, assert their influence. Especially comforting is the recovery in the...
There’s an old adage of Wall Street, which says: “never short a dull market.” And while AI is getting all the press these days, the oil market is about as dull as it gets. This, of course, brings the energy sector to the top of my contrarian alert list. This is not to say that...
Here is a bullish thought. The Federal Reserve seems to have lost its consensus about higher interest rates. Consider the following: On the day the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) broke out to a new high, 5/18/23, the Federal Reserve’s recently anointed Dallas Fed president, Lorie Logan, noted the Fed had “made progress” against inflation. However, she...
Interest rate-sensitive and big tech stocks are seeing positive money flows. but the market’s breadth is suddenly crashing as bond yields test their recent lows. You know trading is dull when stock traders talk about the bond market. But that’s where the action is these days, other than the Nasdaq 100, which no one pays much...
Welcome to the Tom and Jerry Markets Anyone who’s watched Tom and Jerry cartoons knows that a friendly game of cat and mouse can be quite amusing. In real life, however, cat-and-mouse games can have serious consequences. Currently, the markets and the Fed are playing a dangerous version of this game. Overall, I remain selectively bullish,...
As the mainstream focuses on negative developments, such as the Fed’s latest utterings and the implosion of subsets of the commercial real estate (CRE) sector, there seems to be a stealthy migration of money into other select areas of the market. This is a great example of why focusing on the markets instead of the external...
The next liquidity crisis will likely be spurred by the woes in commercial real estate (CRE); ironically, a four-headed megatrend which has been accelerated by the Fed’s rate hike cycle. Introducing the Four Horsemen of MELA: The Great Migration – population shifts to suburbs, rural areas, and the sunbelt; The CRE implosion from an oversupply of office...
There is only one way to survive this market. Focus on strength. Ignore the intraday volatility. And always expect the unexpected. The stock market remains in a stubborn trading pattern, with nearly equal measures of strength and relative weakness. On the one hand, many hedge funds remain short stocks. Their short-term options related plays create...
The release of the March payrolls numbers threw a wrench into the notion that the U.S. economy is slowing. At the same time, given all the negative data which preceded it, the big question is when the market will start to doubt the veracity of the monthly employment numbers. Just a week ago, the stock...
Despite the gloom and doom and increased volatility, money seems to be moving into the stock market. On the surface, there is high anxiety in the markets. Certainly, the potential for more problems in banking remains well above average, as rumors surfaced late in the week suggesting Deutsche Bank (DB) may become the next European...