The next liquidity crisis will likely be spurred by the woes in commercial real estate (CRE); ironically, a four-headed megatrend which has been accelerated by the Fed’s rate hike cycle. Introducing the Four Horsemen of MELA: The Great Migration – population shifts to suburbs, rural areas, and the sunbelt; The CRE implosion from an oversupply of office...
There is only one way to survive this market. Focus on strength. Ignore the intraday volatility. And always expect the unexpected. The stock market remains in a stubborn trading pattern, with nearly equal measures of strength and relative weakness. On the one hand, many hedge funds remain short stocks. Their short-term options related plays create...
The release of the March payrolls numbers threw a wrench into the notion that the U.S. economy is slowing. At the same time, given all the negative data which preceded it, the big question is when the market will start to doubt the veracity of the monthly employment numbers. Just a week ago, the stock...
Despite the gloom and doom and increased volatility, money seems to be moving into the stock market. On the surface, there is high anxiety in the markets. Certainly, the potential for more problems in banking remains well above average, as rumors surfaced late in the week suggesting Deutsche Bank (DB) may become the next European...
It’s going to be a nailbiter for the next few day. The situation for stocks seems to be getting worse by the day as the Federal Reserve and the FDIC scramble to “reassure” depositors that their money is safe, despite a growing list of banks joining the ranks of the insolvent and the potentially insolvent....
The correction in stock prices may be gathering steam, and the potential for a full blown liquidity crisis seems to be rising. The reason may be that several big players in commercial real estate have recently defaulted on billions of dollars’ worth of loans. Last week, in this space, I wrote: “Something happened to the...
The correction in stock prices may be gathering steam, and the potential for a full-blown liquidity crisis seems to be rising. The reason may be that several big players in commercial real estate have recently defaulted on billions of dollars’ worth of loans. Last week, in this space I wrote: “Something happened to the markets...
Something happened to the markets around Valentine’s Day which could reverse the recent uptrend. The stock market didn’t like what it saw in the bond market last week, as yields steadily rose in response to warmer-than-expected readings in both CPI and PPI followed by increasingly hawkish talk from the Fed. At the same time, other...
The bears are getting louder as stocks consolidate recent gains. But the market’s current price consolidation behavior, until proven otherwise, is quite normal, especially after a nearly 20% rally in the S&P 500 (SPX) since the October 2022 bottom. That said, if enough buyers don’t materialize fairly soon, we could see a more serious pullback in...
There are loud voices on Wall Street who continue to talk about bear markets. In my opinion, that’s a good thing. That’s because bull markets climb walls of worry. And the higher this rally goes, the more the bears seem to growl. So, are we in a new bull market? A lot depends on what happens after...