Last week, I tweeted: I believe the #commodities prices in food softs $DBA have bottomed. $GLD-well those who know me-that I pointed out bottomed months ago. $SLV now outperforming. That tells you something. Maybe even #oil. Get ready for the Commodities Super Cycle. If you are not following me @marketminute on twitter, you should consider...
One of the best questions I got asked this week was “How can you be long gold and long semiconductors at the same time?” And I have a simple answer for that. We love to take a position based on the macro, which is why gold has been so compelling. Nonetheless, the algorithms have also...
The Fed raised rates by 25 bps. The decision was unanimous. The terminal rate projection is unchanged at 5.1%. The FOMC statement modifies guidance: “The committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate.” My first tweet @marketminute this morning before the market opened: @marketminute: I feel pretty certain Powell goes 25. Announces theyre willing...
The market buzz can be quite contagious. “Market didn’t collapse on the bank news-must be bullish.” “Yellen will save the day buy making sure depositors are safe.” Yellen herself: “We have an economy that is performing very well.” And of course, we all know that tomorrow is the big FOMC day — .25% to a...
When we wrote How to Grow Your Wealth in 2023, we began with Chaos Trying to Fit a Square Peg into a Round Hole Looking for Inflation in All the Wrong Places Could we have known at the time what headlines would emerge? No. Yet what was obvious is that “from central banks to sovereign...
Folks are calling the FED opening swap lines on the entire US Banking deposit base to the tune of $17.6 trillion as QE infinity. Moody’s cut its outlook on the banking system to negative, saying that it is a rapidly deteriorating operating environment. The market though, generally focused on one thing: CPI. CPI came in...
Given the recent liquidity crisis in the banking sector, Tuesday morning’s CPI number could be an important driver in the Federal Reserve’s next move on March 22nd. As per the report, How to Grow Your Wealth in 2023, “The Federal Reserve is overly optimistic about inflation declining back to 2%.” Also from the Outlook are...
On March 7th, we asked “Will the Market Internals Turn More Bearish”? While we focused mainly on Jerome Powell’s testimony, when he said “if the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes,” in the same Daily, we featured the...
We could call this “3 Days to All Hell broke loose.” We could call this “We told you so.” We could call this, “Welcome to the incredible forecasting of the Economic Modern Family.” We could call this, “Hello delusional semiconductors.” Whatever you wish to call it, the March 6th post called “Retail and Regional Banks...
With Jerome Powell so data-dependent, as he stated on his second and last day of testimony, it seems pretty obvious where most of the growth and labor strength is coming from. This isn’t the first time we have seen semiconductors lead the market, and we can say that it has not historically ended well if...