A mostly graphical daily curated roundup of the markets and the economy from Nasdaq’s IR team.
| the market mechanism at work: “Civilization advances by extending the number of important operations which we can perform without thinking about them.” -Alfred North Whitehead, An Introduction to Mathematics
| Chart of the Week:
* source: Oppenheimer Asset Management, John Stoltzfus
|#UncertainTimes | “Last week was quite a week for equities. Investors pushed the most positively economic sensitive stocks higher on the back of the mitigation in Fed risk which spurred renewed optimism.” -Piper Sandler
| “While the strength in markets was broad based, there were strong undertones of risk reversal. Many of the worst-performing factors YTD outperformed by a wide margin last week. For this risk reversal to be sustained, it would likely require not just the removal of a current market overhang (i.e. the Fed), but instead a broad based recovery.” -Piper Sandler
* source: Piper Sandler
| less pressure on bond yields over the last month+
| #UncertainTimes = Roller coaster Oil | “Concerns about global economic growth and apparent adequate supplies have offset geopolitical concerns and OPEC+ production cuts” -Oppenheimer Asset Management, John Stoltzfus
* source: Oppenheimer Asset Management, John Stoltzfus
| All sectors + major indexes finished higher last week…
* source: Factset, produced by Gavin Zaentz
| Still work left to bring CPI to Fed’s 2% target…
* source: Oppenheimer Asset Management, John Stoltzfus
* source: Oxford Economics
| Consumers have pulled back…will this be a trend?
* source: Oxford Economics
| layoffs are rising …
* source: Oxford Economics
* source: Oxford Economics
| central banks yet have to trim their balance sheets…what impact will that have?
* source: Barclays’ Emmanuel Cau
1) KEY TAKEAWAYS
1) Equities + TYields + Oil HIGHER | Dollar LOWER
Themes: holiday shortened trading week | Earnings winding down | Nvidia reporting earnings this week = big expectations | Will the seasonal market rally last? | Continued geopolitical risks
-By Shon Wilk
DJ +0.0% S&P500 +0.1% Nasdaq +0.1% R2K +0.2% Cdn TSX +0.0%
Stoxx Europe 600 +0.0% APAC stocks HIGHER, 10YR TYield = 4.461%
Dollar LOWER, Gold $1,966, WTI +2%, $78; Brent +2%, $82, Bitcoin $36,977
2) Markets have travelled far but have not really gone anywhere over the last 2 years…
* source: Barclays’ Emmanuel Cau
3) based on historical precedent, we should be entering a recessionary patch very soon: 1) yield curve is now steepening; 2) its been 15 months since yield curve inverted; 3) real Fed funds moving towards the 200bps threshold
4) THIS WEEK:
Global flash PMIs for November
“Other signals of whether economies are softening will include durable goods orders in the US, inflation in Japan, and sentiment gauges in Europe.
From central banks, the FOMC minutes will be high on investors’ agenda, as will the ECB’s account of their October meeting. In corporate earnings, the spotlight will be on Nvidia on Tuesday.” -Deutsche Bank
* source: Barclays’ Emmanuel Cau
2) ESG, COMPILED BY NATHAN GREENE
Western lithium, graphite miners boost prices for ESG-friendly supply – RTRS
-Western lithium and graphite miners have started charging the electric vehicle (EV) supply chain higher prices for their material, meeting demand for environmentally friendly and consistent supply that is not linked to China.
A $1.5 Trillion Loan Market Feels the Fallout of Anti-ESG Forces – BNN
-The $1.5 trillion market for sustainability-linked loans has seen an overall slowdown in volumes this year as both interest rates and greenwashing fears rise. In the US, the number of new sustainability-linked loans is down 80% from a year earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
3) MARKETS, MACRO, CORPORATE NEWS
- Bonds’ best month since March faces ‘sanity check’ in auction-BBG
- The hidden hero fueling soft-landing hopes: A boost in supply–MSN
- China vows to support property sector, tackle local debt-RTRS
- China needs to pull ‘multiple levers’ for property turnaround, say analysts-RTRS
- Japan’s back-to-back wage bonanza would open door for BOJ exit-RTRS
- Hunt warns on inflation risk as UK tax cut expectations grow-BBG
- China pauses rate cuts as focus shifts to credit stability-BBG
- Bets on ECB cuts risk prompting hike instead, Wunsch says-BBG
- Bank of England rate cuts should be underway by August- economists-CITYAM
- Israel-Hamas hostage deal edges closer despite fierce fighting in Gaza-RTRS
- INSIGHT-Forever war? Israel risks a long, bloody insurgency in Gaza-RTRS
- In Beijing, Arab and Muslim ministers urge end to Gaza war-RTRS
- Milei opens a new era: What comes next in Argentina policymaking-BBG
- Short seller Jim Chanos shuts hedge funds after 38-year run-BBG
- OpenAI board in discussions with Sam Altman to return as CEO-VERG
- Sam Altman appears at OpenAI offices as pressure grows to reinstate him-FT
- Microsoft eyes seat on OpenAI’s revamped board-INFO
- Lula asks Petrobras to tweak investment plan for more Brazil jobs-RTRS
- Walgreens to stump up £1bn to offload Boots pension scheme-TIMES
- Altman sought billions for chip venture before OpenAI ouster-BBG
- Emmett Shear becomes interim OpenAI CEO as Altman talks break down-INFO
- Alphabet fund spells bumper valuation for UK digital bank Monzo-SKY
- Microsoft hires former OpenAI chief Sam Altman-FT
- OpenAI taps ex-Twitch CEO to lead as Altman joins Microsoft-BBG
- Bayer woes pile up as blood thinner drug trial fails-RTRS
- Wegovy craze was all the rage on Q3 earnings calls-RTRS
- Citigroup employees brace for layoffs, management overhaul -sources-RTRS
Oil/Energy Headlines: 1) Yemen’s Houthi rebels hijack an Israeli-linked ship in the Red Sea and take 25 crew members hostage-AP 2) China resumed storing crude oil in October as refineries use slips-RTRS 3) Israeli vessel’s capture reignites fears over mideast shipping-BBG 4) Japan oil industry group expects OPEC+ to extend supply curbs-RTRS 5) US confident Arab states will not weaponise oil, says Biden adviser-FT
